If Bitcoin Was Facebook

This post is in the category of prediction instead of the usual postulation of bitcoin science fiction, after reading some posts in Bitcoin groups by Woo.

Facebook started on 4th Feb 2004.

Around 2005 or 2006, I had started to use it. Mainly it was throwing sheep around, writing on walls with icons. The interface was different, though the colour scheme was still that blue hue.


Along the way, there was once or twice, the community wanted Facebook NOT to change the interface. It was mainly a wall that they liked. Then there were petitions by millions of user dedicated users to stop Facebook from changing. Then it happened another time. Relentless Facebook just keeps evolving, yet users stick on to it even they had originally protested any changes.

When it hit year 2010, Facebook was the go-to place with lots of people, activities, walls, faces, photos, privacy being exposed, and old people whom you never have met started to pop up with some devastating consequences. Like it or hate it, most users kept going on. It is simply an addiction. The network effect means you can escape, your colleagues would ask for your Facebook instead of email address. Your friends keep adding you in, or tagging your childhood group photos. Your girlfriend will stalk your page. You stalk other people’s page for photos, information. It goes on and on.

  • 18 May 2012, was the IPO day
  • 421 million shares at $38 USD each
  • Total valuation $38 X 421 million = 16 billion USD
  • Coincidentally today, XBT has a market capitalisation of 16 billion USD
  • Current price 1000 USD
  • Total coins in circulation 16 million, hence 16 billion USD
  • Facebook price today is 135 USD
  • 135 USD div 38 USD = 3.552 times for a period of 4 years + 9 months
  • Assuming today is Year 0 of Bitcoin, or its IPO.
  • 3.552 times X bitcoin current price ($1000 USD) = $3552 USD

The above scenario suggests that in November 2021 bitcoin price will be $3552.

Very conservation value? Or is it far-fetched prediction? Or simply incoherent analysis? Mathematics or fiction? Or casino psychology? Well as they say, the (stock) market is based on these – fear, emotion, greed – not sound fundamental science, mathematics.


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