Deriving Bitcoin Value From Visa

Here is a short continuation from the previous post. This time it is VISA. Visa is a credit card, payment system, global payment, debit card, system that has constantly risen the past 20 years since their IPO in 2008.

Here are some calculations:
VISA market capitalisation = 202 billion USD

Bitcoin = 15 billion USD

202 / 15 =  13.46 times

So for now, Visa, the ubiquitous card payment oligopoly is 13.46 times bigger than bitcoin. Visa’s rival or perhaps frenemy, is Mastercard at 118 billion.

Should we be audacious and assume bitcoin will rise as be as big as VISA? If so, bitcoin’s target price would be 13.46 x 1000 (current nice happy price) $13460 per bitcoin. That would make (us) a lot of libertarian and anarcho-capitalists happy.

We can go down a few notches to play with lower levels. Let’s calculate Mastercard. Well it’s 118 billion hence half of that. That would give bitcoin a value of $6730 USD.

How about another proxy candidate? Similar in aspects of payment, virtual, online, fast, widely used. Paypal. 51 billion USD.

51 / 15 = 3.4 times so roughly 3400 USD per bitcoin. Three thousand four hundred dollars is still considered a happy price.

Should bitcoin price rise gradually? Should it do a spike and bust, spike and bust? Should it correlate – or inversely correlate – to other financial cadavers such as US Dollar, Gold, Palladium, Lithium, Water?

xiaomi-qicycle-2

Lithium seems very important. It is used in ALL mobile devices. Android, IOS, all need lithium. Tesla cars, BYD cars, quadcopters, MI Qicycle (Xiaomi’s electric foldable bicycle). Sooner or later, electric cars will be massively mainstream. How long did it take horse carriages to go extinct? During the transition, there were some confusion, uncertainty, hype. Then after x amount of days, it eventually happened. Cars or automobiles, are the norm.

A demand for lithium will grow exponentially too. Should we invest in Elon Musk aka Tesla, or the precious metal lithium itself? Should one invest in media (Coindesk), wallet (Xapo), or the precious metal itself – bitcoin? Or ETF? Or the mining firms? Once upon a time, a mining firm called Rio Tinto was priced at $155 USD. Now it is $67 USD.

Let’s try another. Exxon. Assuming bitcoin is the oil of the new internet. The money oil. The fuel. Fuel of the internet. Exxon is one of the largest oil companies in this evil greedy world. Market cap at 335 billion USD.

335 / 15 = 22.33 times or simply $22333 USD per bitcoin.

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