Scaling Debacle Closure

There were two cities. A tale of two cities. Two streams.

But – alas, there will be no debate further. Both will not budge from their position.

Clearly, there is a huge ruckus, countless debate, technical, psychological, economical.

Instead, it may be just that. It will not be changed due to the implicit behaviour of the blockchain, placed by the creator. Therefore, there will be a continuation of the perceived slowness in confirmation. While the price of bitcoin continues to rise due to awareness, adoption, fear of missing out, the imminent economic collapse, political collapse, geo-political outburst.

marketcap

The bonds/stocks/banks conundrum has doubled down several fold. The last I heard from Mike Maloney, it was about 4 times since the 2008 banking bailout, over 4 trillion in USD. At 1% that value is 40 billion USD. The past couple of months, depending on how you measure it, there was a 10 billion USD inflow into bitcoin’s market capitalisation.

Essentially I am calling out that out of all these funny money floating and propping the markets artificially, finally has an awakening and decided to be smart money, and escapes the system and goes into the bitcoin system. Very conservation value. This is before any bell-raising meltdown. Just quietly.

From 20 billion to 30 billion market capitalisation, the price was up 50%, from 1200 USD to 1800 USD. That’s 0.25% or a quarter of that “smart money escape” scenario.

Expecting the very least of the full 1% mentioned above, that leaves another 30 billion to escape into bitcoin.

To make a more realistic financial model, it shouldn’t be a straight line upwards valuation. Hence, the next 10 billion into bitcoin, perhaps should not equate another 50%, or 600 USD increase. Whichever the case, let’s try them all, with base price $1200 and top $1800:

Model 1 – straight line (each successive 10 billion inflow)

10 billion => Price up $900 => 1800+900 = $2700
10 billion => Price up $1350 => 1350+2700 = $4050
10 billion => Price up $2025 = 2025+4050 = $6075

Model 2 – halving line (prices up are halved, so 50% now 25% then 12.5%)

10 billion => Price up $450 => 1800+450 = $2250
10 billion => Price up $225 => 225+2250 = $2475
10 billion => Price up 112.5 => 112.5+2475 = $2587.50

It took about a quarter of a year to get 10 billion into bitcoin. Projecting these for the full year, allows a prediction of between $2587.50 to $6075, for the final price of bitcoin this year end.

What if there was this full blown financial collapse? Global Financial Crisis? Seemingly most world crisis made by men, could be avoided but alas never. H1N1 virus? That was man-made. Human feeding chickens with antibiotics to they won’t die, so that they could be cramped up with 20 thousand other chickens to lay eggs, eat GMO corn, without much movement in their caged lives. Naturally a super-bug is being cultivated from the sheer abomination of said living conditions. By virtue of the constant drug addiction of antibiotics itself, it would have affected the humans consuming those poultry and eggs eventually. Likewise, farmed salmon. They are fed with stuff that fish never ate in their entire creation – pellets created by man with ingredients like antibiotics, growth hormone, pork, beef intestines, spare parts. It is no surprise, human immune levels are down, ever increasing cases of autism, mental problems.

A catastrophic monetary collapse then would not be a great surprise.  It happened around 1997-1998, then 2008. then obviously next ten year cycle is coming up either 2017 or 2018. The fact is if we combined the whole world’s financial system, that amount would be insufficient.

The scaling debacle may continue forever. Yet bitcoin prices will continue rising. Even if it is slow, in fact slower would be the new intrinsic property of bitcoin. Since as each bitcoin value goes astronomical, it is no more small change. If you remember handling coins when you were a child, then the experience was upgraded into bills. You don’t throw them around as toys. You handle them with care. You begin to manage them. You begin to store them. Keep them dry, safe. You bought a wallet.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s